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Some Experts Say Mortgage Rates May Fall Below 6% Later This Year

Some Experts Say Mortgage Rates May Fall Below 6% Later This Year Simplifying The Market

There’s a lot of confusion in the market about what’s happening with day-to-day movement in mortgage rates right now, but here’s what you really need to know: compared to the near 8% peak last fall, mortgage rates have trended down overall.

And if you’re looking to buy or sell a home, this is a big deal. While they’re going to continue to bounce around a bit based on various economic drivers (like inflation and reactions to the consumer price index, or CPI), don’t let the short-term volatility distract you. The experts agree the overarching downward trend should continue this year.

While we won’t see the record-low rates homebuyers got during the pandemic, some experts think we should see rates dip below 6% later this year. As Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research, says:

“They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.

And Baker isn’t the only one saying this is a possibility. The latest Fannie Mae projections also indicate we may see a rate below 6% by the end of this year (see the green box in the chart below):

 a screenshot of a graph

The chart shows mortgage rate projections for 2024 from Fannie Mae. It includes the one that came out in December, and compares it to the updated 2024 forecast they released just one month later. And if you look closely, you’ll notice the projections are on the way down.

It’s normal for experts to re-forecast as they watch current market trends and the broader economy, but what this shows is experts are feeling confident rates should continue to decline, if inflation cools.

What This Means for You

But remember, no one can say for sure what will happen (and by when) – and short-term volatility is to be expected. So, don’t let small fluctuations scare you. Focus on the bigger picture.

If you’ve found a home you love in today’s market – especially where finding a home that meets your budget and your needs can be a challenge – it’s probably not a good idea to try to time the market and wait until rates drop below 6%.

With rates already lower than they were last fall, you have an opportunity in front of you right now. That’s because even a small quarter point dip in rates gives your purchasing power a boost.

Bottom Line

If you wanted to move last year but were holding off hoping rates would fall, now may be the time to act. Connect with a real estate agent to get the ball rolling. 

Christa Votaw

Christa has lived in the low country since 2009 and she is very passionate about serving the needs of others. From Building homes in Mexico, serving inside foodbanks across the nation, homeless outreach programs in New York City, to setting up medical units in partnership with Doctors Without Borders in Sierra Leone, Africa, Christa never passes up an opportunity to give her time to others and share the love of Christ with those she has an opportunity to impact.

Since living in Charleston, SC, she has served on the board for the Avondale race, supporting the Charles Webb Center a local developmental day care facility serving children with disabilities from age 6 weeks to 10 years old. Without the funds raised from the race, the center would have not been able to keep their doors open.

As a top Loan Officer Christa is able to put her commitment to others to use by helping families get into homes with that same passion and love. Consistently recognized as a Circle of Excellence producer, she has a particular passion for first time home buyers and puts her whole heart into each and every opportunity to assist a client to realize their dream of home ownership. She is proud to represent Clear Mortgage and bring value, transparency, and clarity to the most important piece of the mortgage puzzle…. You.

Licensed in North and South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia

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